Former labor secretary Robert Reich says he feels nauseous optimism when he thinks about the upcoming presidential election. I feel exactly the same, except for the optimism part.
Trump’s first term started as a bad joke, with feckless aides in service to a showboat who saw the presidency as a means of building his brand. But over four years, far-right extremists learned to use Trump for their purposes, and vice versa. A second term will be more dangerous – tightly planned and executed, with revenge, centralization of power, and white ethnonationalism as its driving motives.
Among the possibilities, based on what Trump himself has said: a purge of career civil servants and their replacement with Trump loyalists. A politicized Justice Department that serves Trump’s interests, beginning with dismissal of all federal charges against him. Mass roundups, detentions, and deportations of immigrants (whom Trump recently called “not people”). Investigation and harassment of Trump’s political opponents and attempts to use the US military to crush domestic protest. A green light to his base to carry out political violence.
This time, Trump will surround himself with lieutenants whose loyalty is beyond question. The Supreme Court has a conservative supermajority, Congress is held hostage to MAGA insurgents, and the Republican Party is a subsidiary of the Trump Organization. Who’s going to stop him?
Well, we are – at least we’ll try. At NOPE, the volunteer group I work with, our strategy team has given us a roadmap for the year. Our aims are to keep Trump out of the White House, flip the House of Representatives to Democratic control, maintain control of the Senate, and loosen the GOP grip on state legislatures. Those are sweeping aims. But we’ll pursue them in a focused, strategic way, working in partnership with other groups that are striving toward the same ends. Below, I outline the building blocks of NOPE’s program in case it helps others who are also planning to be active this year.
NOPE’s three-part strategy
As a relatively small group, we can’t be everywhere all at once. Nor are we in the fat-cat donor league, though we raise more funds than many groups our size. To have an impact, we have to carefully target how we spend our time and money.
To begin with, we concentrate on the battleground states. Seven competitive states are likely to determine who wins the presidency this year: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Biden won six of them in 2020 by less than 3 percentage points, and those six are rated as toss-ups in 2024.
Within our seven target states, we select key races for Congress and state legislatures. A Democratic-controlled Congress would be a check on a Trump White House. To flip the House, Democrats need a net gain of only four seats, while the Senate is more challenging: to hold the Senate, Dems need to win all seven of the closest races (plus the White House, so the vice president can break a tie). State legislatures, meanwhile, are making critical decisions about who can vote and how votes are counted. In each state we identify one or more candidates whose races are strategic and winnable but not a sure thing. We support these candidates with some combination of funding and voter contact (which may be through canvassing, phone banking, letter writing, or texting).
At the same time, we support local organizing groups that are mobilizing voters in the battleground states. We carefully research, identify, and develop partnerships with a small number of groups, giving priority to those working in communities of color. In advising our members on their (purely voluntary) donations, our rule of thumb is one-third for candidates, two-thirds for organizing. It’s a long-term strategy that extends beyond any single electoral cycle.
The battlegrounds state by state
Pennsylvania will be our main arena for action in 2024. It has 19 Electoral College votes, the most of any battleground. Biden won the state in 2020 by just 1.2%, making it a true toss-up this year. Pennsylvania also has a critical Senate race – Sen. Bob Casey is up for reelection – and four House seats in play. Plus, it’s the closest swing state to the DC area, where most NOPE members live. Our volunteers will be on the road to Pennsylvania frequently this summer and fall.
We won’t travel to the other target states, but we’ll phone, write, and text their voters and send funds to local groups that are knocking on doors. Here’s a quick look at the other six:
Michigan. Biden won here in 2020 by 2.8%, but the state’s politics are in flux, with a large uncommitted vote in the Democratic primary. Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring, and we need to hold her seat. Three House races are considered lean-Dem or toss-ups.
Nevada. Biden’s 2020 margin was 2.4%. Sen. Jacky Rosen is a top GOP target, so we need to defend her seat. There’s also a House seat in play.
Wisconsin. Biden edged Trump by 0.6%. Democrats will defend Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s seat, and one House seat is in play.
Arizona. Biden’s 2020 margin was just 0.3%. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s seat is up for grabs, and two House seats are in play.
Georgia. The toughest of the toss-ups. Biden won Georgia by just 0.2% in 2020, which helps explain Trump’s plea to the secretary of state to “find” 11,000 votes. The fact that a Southern state flipped at all makes clear what grassroots organizing can do.
North Carolina. Trump won here by 1.4%. But with changing demographics and strong organizing on the ground, the state just might be gettable. North Carolina also has an important race for governor, with Democrat Josh Stein facing off against bizarre MAGA conspiracy theorist Mark Robinson.
Why local organizing works
Democrats do well with college-educated voters of all races, but those votes aren’t enough to beat Trump. That’s why NOPE supports groups that are active in working-class communities of color and youth in the battleground states. Overall, these demographic groups are less frequent voters, most likely seeing both parties as unconcerned with their lives. The challenge is not just to get their votes but to build lasting political power within these communities.
This is best done by local groups, operating with local staff and volunteers. We could go knock on these doors ourselves, but we don’t. I canvassed in York, Pennsylvania, in 2016 and was warmly received by Black and Latino voters alarmed by the prospect of a Trump presidency. But in general, having outsiders parachute into these places in the days before an election is not a strategic approach. We don’t look local; we don’t sound local; we don’t know people in these communities or understand the specific problems they are facing. Voters may think, “We only hear from you when you ask for our votes. We don’t see you the rest of the year. We don’t even know who you are.”
By contrast, local activists are present in their communities year-round, working with residents on housing, schools, safe drinking water, whatever the local issues may be. So when it’s time to register voters and talk about which candidates to vote for, there’s a foundation of trust to build on.
At our last meeting we heard from Steve Paul, executive director of One Pennsylvania. His group plans to make more than 2 million voter contacts this year. He told us,
We hire people directly from the community. Instead of getting a text or a door knock from some stranger, it’s your neighbor that you see in a supermarket. We've been alongside folks fighting for a livable wage in Pennsylvania. At the height of covid, One PA was organizing with our member communities to prevent thousands of people from getting evicted or foreclosed. We’re building a movement that’s about long-term strategy and not just one election cycle or one candidate.
Our 2024 organizing slate
This year, NOPE is supporting one community organizing group in each of our seven battleground states:
Arizona: Somos Votantes
Georgia: Black Voters Matter
Michigan: Michigan People’s Campaign
Nevada: Make the Road Action
North Carolina: Carolina Federation
Pennsylvania: One Pennsylvania
Wisconsin: Voces de la Frontera Action
We’ve vetted these groups, their track records, and their 2024 plans, and we’ll follow their progress all year. Our members are invited to donate to them through a dedicated ActBlue link. (As an all-volunteer group, NOPE has no overhead and no bank account; all funds raised go directly to the recipients via ActBlue.) We encourage people to donate early in the electoral cycle, as local organizing groups are staffing up now for the push to November.
If you want to donate, that’s great, but fundraising isn’t my main purpose here. Rather, I wanted to share the outlines of our strategy because a similar approach can be used anywhere. It’s going to be a rough year and nothing is guaranteed, but I want to wake up on the morning of November 6 knowing I did what I could.
You can learn more about NOPE here and sign up for our Weekly Update here. The newsletter (I’m a co-editor) is emailed once a week and offers timely opportunities for volunteer actions, many of which can be done from anywhere.
Thanks for sharing a very sound strategy.
I love the idea of contributing to NOPE and having my donation go to the 7 states that you all have determined are critical and that the donation will be put to good use. Thanks for all your group does!